Abstract
We determine the asymptotic quantum variance of microlocal lifts of Hecke–Maass cusp forms on the arithmetic compact hyperbolic surfaces attached to maximal orders in quaternion algebras. Our result extends those for the non-compact modular surface obtained by Luo–Sarnak–Zhao, whose method required a cusp. The global arguments in our proof involve an analytic study of the theta correspondence, the interplay between additive and multiplicative harmonic analysis on quaternion algebras, the equidistribution of translates of elementary theta functions, and the Rallis inner product formula. These reduce the proof to local problems involving the construction and analysis of microlocal lifts via integral operators on the group, addressed using an analytic incarnation of the method of coadjoint orbits.